Milan, Italy, 28.1.2020
Safe Pathways out of Climate Chrisis!
Risto Linturi, Futurist, Executive Catalyst
risto@linturi.fi

Distinguished audience

This will not be a motivational presentation on climate crisis. I leave that burden to Greta Thunberg. Her latest talk for World Economic Forum was very strong and clear. I do however wish to add my own core motivation – if we fail and let the temperatures rise more than two degrees, the risks of runaway feedbacks grow. We might suddenly end up with +6C temperature rise. The last time this happened was just after the dinosaurs had died. Crocodiles roamed near the arctic, where temperatures were warm enough but not too warm for life.

Now we face early increase in weather anomalies. I come from Helsinki; this used to be the coldest midwinter; occasional temperatures falling to –20C. This year, day temperatures have been positive all January, spring flowers bloom in my yard and birds sing their spring songs. No crocodiles yet – we need to keep it this way.

And we need to act now. We should not talk about population growth or saving a little energy. IPCC is clear: We are to stop all carbon dioxide emissions outside the natural cycle. So, don’t stop breathing, but do quit using or supporting fossil fuels unless you wish to risk the lives of your children. The later we start, the more we risk, and the more we need to suck back from the atmosphere later. The western world must lead – it is up to us to develop the carbon neutral industry; we pioneer the new methods and only then the developing countries can follow. Finland has set a goal to be carbon neutral by 2035. That target is ambitious enough.

I have led a voluntary effort for seven years now – thousands of people have helped collect and analyze studies on recent technological breakthroughs. The Parliament of Finland has published our results including nearly two thousand selected source links. Based on this material we know we can rise to meet the challenge. A carbon neutral future can be richer than today’s fossil fuel-based economy. I will now point out the most promising paths in all major problem areas. Jointly these transformations lead to a carbon neutral world.

Carbon free energy is the key to everything. If that fails, all fails. But, if we have enough carbon free energy, we can solve all other problems too.

Currently a new nuclear power plant is being built in Finland – it is by now the world's most expensive building. The construction started in 2005 and the plant was scheduled to be operational in 2009. Presently we hope this fiasco would start producing power sometime next year. Ten thousand such projects would have to start within few years in order to replace all fossil fuels globally. This kind of approach clearly does not seem practical. Using the current learning curve and potential of solar energy I calculated that producing the same energy, within the same timetable, using solar panels would require only ten percent of the capital.

Other means are available, but solar energy shows the greatest promise. Thin films need very little rare materials and they can be integrated to construction elements, covering all roofs and walls without extra panel installation processes. New photovoltaic materials will allow solar panel efficiency doubled within a decade. Cost of producing solar power will by then fall below one cent per kilowatt. With cheap electricity, we can then produce cheap solar fuels. There are also promising experiments; Mix copper oxide with water; sunlight turns the water into 70% methanol drawing CO2 from the air. No electricity is needed. With this kind of a cuprate roof, methanol could flow to your tank via the drainage pipes.

We all know how solar energy is not available continuously. Therefore, the rapid rise of solar energy production has leveled in many countries despite lowering costs. Solar and wind need buffers. Energy storage has until now been limited or prohibitively expensive. All sorts of battery chemistries and production methods are now being studied. LI battery cost is predicted to fall to 50 Euros / kWh within few years while the number of usable life doubles. Cost of grid scale flow batteries will also decrease; daily storing and retrieving electricity could drop to one cent per kilowatt hour during 2030’s. Average cost of power may thus fall below one and a half cents. Fossil fuels can’t compete. For longer duration storage – like during the dark long winter in Finland, we can get heat and power using solar fuels in fuel cells. Their costs are also falling year by year.

Transportation is a major polluter. With batteries costing less than 100 euro per kilowatt hour, electric cars can be produced cheaper than fossil fuel cars. Cost of driving is lower, and maintenance is easier. From 2025 onwards there will be very little sense in buying a gasoline car. During the late 30’s you might find it difficult to find fuel for your fossil car. Volkswagen has already purchased batteries for 10 million cars – as a starter. As the energy density and durability grows, trucks become electric too.
And airplanes – there are several airplane manufacturers developing both electric planes and hydrogen planes. Electric planes ranges will extend to thousands of kilometers when more energy dense batteries are ready for the market. First electric ships are operational on short distances. Electric vehicles will be nearly carbon neutral as energy to produce and use them is carbon neutral.

Industry is one of our largest carbon dioxide emitters. Most emissions come from process industry – producing raw materials. Of all man-made emissions, steel alone is responsible for 4 to 7%, concrete for 8%. Nowadays iron ore is reduced with carbon, and the necessary heat is produced with fossil fuels. Iron can be replaced with processed wood fibers, nanocarbons and other strong and light materials. But we need not abandon iron totally. Iron ore can be reduced with hydrogen and heat produced with sunlight. Large manufacturers are now studying so-called green steel – carbon free production of iron and steel. Green concrete is also under development. Biological processes in room temperature can be used to calcify minerals and instead of being just carbon neutral, the processes can even be carbon negative. Amongst the carbon negative processes – sunlight can be used to break carbon dioxide and produce nanocarbons and polymers for industrial use.

Besides the construction, buildings emit CO2 through heating and cooling. There is great potential for buildings that are energy independent, producing and storing their own power and heat. Besides carbon free electric heating and cooling, other means can be used. Geothermal heat from kilometer deep wells can heat whole districts. 20-meter wells can store summer heat to winter and winter cold to summer. Passive radiators can emit excess heat from houses into night sky and infrared heat can be turned to electricity using novel photonic materials. Core capability is naturally to insulate homes from the cold or warm and use smart windows to mirror the infrared. Those were a novel invention 25 years ago like the super insulators are today – We built our first experimental smart home then.

And now – I am a bit excited. Talking about food in Italy. But be that as it may – agriculture is among the major sources of emission. Farm free food is my last topic. Vertical farming with LED-lights can produce 100 times as much food per square meter compared to regular farming while using 100 times less water. And fermenting is even better – the difference is so huge, there is no need to calculate it. But these methods require energy and that I did calculate based on plant efficiency and fermentation efficiency.

If you would cover all agricultural land in Italy with solar panels – soon achieving 30% efficiency and use the power for fermenting proteins and growing plants in urban farms, Italy could feed all the worlds 8 billion people. This solves the last major carbon dioxide emitter – we have the tools. Now we must get used to the ideas and start turning towards this carbon neutral future.

And what a future – it will be a race, a tight race between utopia and dystopia. Forty years from now those of us who are still here will know how the dice rolled. We may end up having solved the quest for eternal life, practically free energy, self-sustained villages, clever AI-enhanced population and dream castles – or we might end up with a world in constant crisis, with societies tumbling, asymmetric cyber wars – the stuff of science fictional dystopian movies.

So – now I wish we select wisely and behave accordingly!

Thank you!