SOME TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACTS

Sonera 19.05.2001

SOME TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACTS

Risto Linturi

Just four years ago freedom of speech was a big issue. A committee had just completed its two years of work under the leadership of Jarmo Virmavirta. They suggested among others that all voice and moving picture in internet should be archived for three months and replayed on demand for anyone who was afraid of having been insulted.

      How could the committee have such a strange view of what would happen in so near future. I did my best to arouse opposition and finally got quite many organizations to oppose the suggested law reform. To stop this kind of ideas I started talking about having a web camera in my fridge. The story spread out of hand and CNN among others announced that they are coming to film it as part of the Finnish high tech miracle. To add to the effect I made also my front door operable with my mobile phone. Visions of the future need its clowns all over the world. Next week CNN is coming again to ask why Finland has progressed so far. Let us start from the past in a more serious tone.

      During prehistoric and historic times man has not changed biologically. Main difference might be that our mothers have taught us to be more polite and verbal. We have now different tools and communication patterns from our ancestors.

      These technologies starting from hunting knives and fire to farming and from storytelling or cave wall paintings to modern information systems have affected our value systems, power structures, everyday routines and our environment. Within the next one hundred years we will most propably leap as much forward as we have done since we first started storing information on cave walls. Then it may well be that we will no longer resemble cavemen even genetically.

      It is important to try and understand what drives this development. There are various rules that seem to apply. There also seems to be random chance and even some individual people that may have been able to affect major parts of the outcome. Georg Orwell is one example whose “Big Brother”-vision has still today a tremendous impact on European information system development. Jules Verne has also inspired several generations and driven them to technological leaps in directions he has pointed out. We can avoid mistakes if we understand where we are heading. We can also sometimes succeed in affecting the outcome if we understand the optional futures and the driving forces behind them.

It is important to notice that development is mostly based on basic human needs. Maslow defined these needs from the individual viewpoint. From another viewpoint it seems that hunger for power and the need to aquire wealth are very important factors driving technological development even though they would seem to stand very low on Maslows hierarchy.

      The invention of zero and the decimal system seems to prove that this need for a selfish motive and institutional resources are not always necessary. This invention and its acceptance all over the world did not require investments. In fact the church opposed strongly against it in Europe. Even laymen could perform calculus and this lead to widespread utilization of rational explanations instead of witchcraft.

      The theory of memes - memory genes - ideas and concepts, which have strength to spread around by themselves was originally described in Richard Dawkins book “The Selfish Gene”.    Zero and other ideas like the big brother and Vernes belief in technological advance are examples of memes. Memes are basically nonhierarchical and they have often been used to fight strong hierarchies.

      Francis Fukuyama in his book “The Great Disruption” covered widely how the human race naturally tends to self organize and create rules and norms for itself so that useful co-operation within communities would be easy and mutually beneficial. Because of many variables these rules and norms do not seem to find a permanent stable state.

      One of the most interesting changes has taken place in the process of distributing economic power between organizations. When society stabilized enough to limit the use of violence, the best way to aquire great wealth was trade. Information flow was slow and erratic and trading empires actually controlled the information flow and largest part of transport. Investments concentrated into these activities all through Ceasars time to Napoleons time. Only after public communication routes were opened and public transport became available the pattern changed. Manufacturing gained importance and became better means to make profit than trade. Humankind turned its attention to studying better manufacturing methods and products and power shifted to cultures whose customs and communications methods were better suited to investments in industrialization than trade.

      Now again our communication system has evolved much beyond any expectations. Corporations are mainly valued for their expected future earnings and wealth is aquired by interpreting early warning signals and changes in those future expectations. Globalization, standardization, increasing co-oparation between networked companies and fierce competition has decreased profits in manufacturing.

      Simultaneously this development has lead to increasing demand for efficient and open communication networks, which operate across hierarchies. This again favours some human cultural patterns. Just think about many cultures where it is very difficult to call your boss because the organization and initiatives are supposed to work the other way. How can that sort of behaviour patterns survive in competitive networked society where exeptions are the most important information and where rumours spread information more efficiently than most marketing campaigns. After Berlin, walls are breaking everywhere - and without protective walls you have to be more efficient. Otherwise you lose your customers, citizens or employees and finally your investors and your job.

Let us concentrate briefly on a few spesific innovations. The future brings us a small mobile phone, which is implanted, in our head. A speech synthesizor and a sensor in our vocal chords can replace the microphone. With a loudspeaker connected to our ear this would in all practical sense mean that we have invented telepathy. There are numerous books that illustrate how telepathy would change the workings of our society. And if you think carefully, most of the described changes are taking place just now in all those countries where mobile phones are kept always open and numbers made public. Soon these phones will tape everything your ears can hear and use speech recognition to index all of it to allow perfect recollection just like searching the internet.

      All these networks and information appliances have made it easy to aquire information and employ experts. More and more of the value of products has also turned out to be bits. Manufacturing cost and distribution cost of these bits approaches zero. This means that only the best one gets profit. One has to find at least few customers whose needs he can meet better than any other. Creativity will become one of the key success factors - creativity and sensitivity to the needs of others. Lucas and Nokia are good examples of very creative and sensitive companies.

      Cultures with rigid symbol structures and communication hierarchies and hierarchical initiative patterns have to face this change and give way to more creative behaviour patterns. Otherwise they they must wither and lose their competitive positions. Many of the changes will be so called social innovations and strong hierarchies will fight against change. But change is inevitable and faster than ever as the change will be catalyzed by investment capital and memes and both of them move now very freely almost all over the world.

      By the way – did you hear that Microsoft has said that Linux in communistic and unamerican. Some papers now explain it was invented here because we have lived beside the communistic rule for so long.

      It is almost a tautological claim to say that information storage and retrieval tools combined with communications networks speed up all development. Equally naturally networks favour such traits in individuals and communities that help us take advantage from these powerful new tools. Let us now study the concepts of trust, honour and openness in this sense. Toffler showed us extensively in his book “The Third Wave” how the industrial society required a change in values. People had to feel free to move and leave their previous responsibilities. They had to easily immerse in new communities. Previous concepts of responsibility and honour to your community had to be transferred to concepts of privacy and responsibility to the state who would then take care of ones previous responsibilities like the elders and punishment for debts and crime. This was the way of the industrial age.

Internet is often referred to as a global village. It is easy to find new business aquintancies and start co-oparating with them. This fast paced networked business model seems to be extremely efficient but it requires a similar model of trust that existed before the industrial revolution. If you are a bully I will easily find it out from others in internet. If you are a good guy I can trust you and do business with you without long contractual negotiations with international lawyers. All shops are almost side-by-side in internet which makes comparisons easy. It seems that there was not enough positive feedback for trust and honour in the western industrial society and for that reason we shifted towards hedonistic values and selfish behaviour patterns. There is a clear connection to privacy also. It is questionable whether honour has any meaning if you cannot loose it in the eyes of your fellow beings.

      I claim like David Brin in his book “Transparent Society” that this new internet based transparent society will bring us back many of the values in earlier small villages if we just yield to change. Various cultures will naturally try different paths but as the internet is global this will basically be a global change and a global challange.

Physical surroundings have been very important to us and we have shared our environment with our community. Now this has changed and continues to change due to mass media and virtual reality devices. Some people feel that their daily soap opera characters are family members. Nowadays we live amongst imaginary concepts and most of our well-being is not dependant any more from our physical surroundings. We may actually experience extremely different everyday surroundings from our next-door neigbourgh.

      Virtual reality technologies will enable us to see what we wish whether based on physical reality or not. This will give us better methods to control and be informed of our physical surroundings. We may install video cameras inside all our gadgets. With these extra eyes and communications links we may remotely see what is the situation in our summer cottage, in our fridge or our office. We may get rid of all traffic signs because they can all be viewed virtually from future mobile phones and electronic windshields. Buses and taxis can be seen from virtual maps and closest taxi can be ordered with a mouse click. A mechanician can see in his augmented reality glasses where he is supposed to put his hands next. All this information and computerized expertize in useful form makes many of us well equipped to be aware and able to handle our surroundings and in such a way meet one of the very basic human needs.

        Simultaneously all this virtual reality technology gives us pleasant virtual friends and environment which tries to lure us away from the reality. Tamagotchi and daily soap operas show how easily we can get addicted to imaginery reality. Drugs show the ill side effects of such addiction. Future society will be devided between those living in physical reality and those mainly concentrated in imaginary, perhaps addicted to individual computer created environments. Mick Farren described already in the late 70´s in his book “The Feelies” how an actor might tape 24 hours per day of her luxurious life and all the sensory input would be replayed to viewers permanently stored in cyber caskets or virtual coffins. This can be compared to current extensive usage of TV and this is the way where also the digital TV is leading.

      We are in crossroads and our future may lead to more and more mass entertainment where less and less people contribute in any meaningful way. Computers with all their cameras can be used to create interactive environments where viewers are rewarded always when they respond in a suitable way. These behavioral computers can easily train us in useful skills but as easily they can condition and addict us to follow the paths laid by their creators. But as I mentioned, we are in crossroads. The other path leads to an open society where hierarchies are low and communication routes are symmetrical. In this open society everybody is expected to contribute and take part in creating content. In this other path content is created for smaller groups and financed by mutual interest and very seldom financed by advertizements. This path resembles current internet development. Mass market and advertizement syncronized production belongs to Tofflers second wave and we should study critically all regulations and other structures that still support these old but powerful dinosaur.