Vuonna 1998, tulevaisuudentutkijaurani alussa, kirjoitimme Ilkka Hannulan kanssa 100 Phenomena -kirjan. Emme halunneet kuvata huomista varovaisesti nykyhetken jatkeena. Kirja kirjoitettiin tarkoituksella hätkähdyttäväksi, jotta tulevaisuus myös tuntuisi tulevaisuudelta.
Siksi otimme melkoisen riskin. Puimme ennakoidut ilmiöt uutisiksi, mainoksiksi ja puheiksi vuosilta 2000–2020 ja veimme niiden seuraukset välillä pitkälle. Tavoitteemme ei ollut osua jokaiseen tuotteeseen, nimeen tai toteutustapaan. Asetimme tavoitteeksi, että 70 prosenttia ilmiöistä toteutuisi olennaisilta osin viiden vuoden tarkkuudella.
Nyt tulevaisuudesta on tullut historiaa. Jokaisen tarinan yhteydessä on vuoden 2026 AI-avusteinen arvio, jossa etsitään tekstin merkitystason ydin ja erotetaan se vaikeammin ennustettavista yksityiskohdista. Viiden vuoden tarkkuus tarkoittaa ennustevuoden ympärillä olevaa ±5 vuoden aikaikkunaa.
Miten ennusteet osuivat?
Verkkoversiossa on 114 tarinaa. Kun kuusi selvää jatkokertomussarjaa lasketaan kukin vain kerran, arvioitavia ilmiöitä on 107. Sarjan yhteinen luokka on sen sivuarvioiden lähimpään kokonaislukuun pyöristetty keskiarvo.
Tiukalla alkuperäisellä ehdolla selkeitä onnistumisia on 64 prosenttia. Kun mukaan luetaan kolme vahvasti mutta ajoitukseltaan myöhässä toteutunutta ilmiötä, osuus on 67 prosenttia. Tulos jää hieman 70 prosentin tavoitteesta, mutta kertoo samalla, kuinka paljon rohkeallakin otteella oli mahdollista nähdä oikein jo vuonna 1998.
Selvin tendenssi on, että digitaalisia palveluja, mobiililaitteita, verkkokauppaa, tekoälyä, etätoimintaa sekä dataan, yksityisyyteen ja tietoturvaan liittyviä muutoksia koskevat ennusteet onnistuivat parhaiten. Niissä kehityksen suunta oli jo näkyvissä, vaikka laitteiden muodot ja yritysten nimet vaihtuivat.
Vaikeimpia olivat täsmällistä biologista läpimurtoa, radikaalia ihmisen muokkaamista, uusia materiaaleja tai eksoottista energiatekniikkaa edellyttäneet ennusteet. Monessa niistä yhteiskunnallinen kysymys tai kehityksen suunta osui, mutta tekniikka eteni kuviteltua hitaammin tai toista reittiä. Juuri tämä ero ilmiön ja toteutustavan välillä tekee vanhojen tulevaisuuskuvien lukemisesta kiinnostavaa.
Lue listaa kokeena: mitä olisi vuonna 1998 pitänyt uskaltaa ajatella, jotta nykyhetken olennaiset muutokset olisivat tulleet näkyviin? Vihreä kertoo vahvasta toteumasta, keltainen osittaisesta osumasta ja punainen virheestä. Sulkeissa oleva pistemäärä tarkoittaa, että ajoitus jäi alkuperäisen ±5 vuoden aikaikkunan ulkopuolelle.
Ilmiöt
- 1. DetectaDate Transceivers to Cure Your Lonely Heart (2000) 5/5
- 2. Merita-Nordbanken establishes virtual branches in old people’s homes (2000) 4/5
- 3. Helsinki Arena 2000 - Inaugural Address for Virtual Helsinki, 1.4.2000 (2000) 4/5
- 4. E-mail new cause of stress - three possible cures for your mail headaches (2000) 5/5
- 5. Great strides in cure for osteoporosis (2001) 5/5
- 6. Helsinki International GT coverage available to net users in real-time - interactive direction (2001) 5/5
- 7. Hackers find backdoor to InterDict encryption codes (2001) 4/5
- 8. Emfi membrane gains ground in hi-if loudspeaker market (2001) 3/5
- 9. Cybertaxis ease orienteering problems in Virtual Helsinki (2002) 4/5
- 10. Matti Virtanen changes name - cites Internet as cause (2002) 4/5
- 11. New paints to revolutionize building sector? (2002) 3/5
- 12. SatWeb to relay Net-TV channels (2002) 5/5
- 13. Sales of clockwork computer exceed all forecasts (2003) 4/5
- 14. Eurovision winner trusts in satellite shepherd to locate children in virtual city (2003) 5/5
- 15. Eye-controlled software - the answer to mouse fatigue? (2003) 4/5
- 16. Discovery of endogene sequence to bring relief for the weight-challenged (2003) 4/5
- 17. Virtual art breaks down barriers - Alvar Bonk’s programmed paintings turn heads (2003) 5/5
- 18. WHO gives approval to first-generation “cancer vaccines” (2004) 4/5
- 19. Gene-reader Denator causes fury among labour unions & insurance customers (2004) 5/5
- 20. Brisk demand for new Siemens range of VideoGSM refrigerator/freezers (2004) 4/5
- 21. “Move over, Rover” - DigiDog offers electronic challenge to guide-dogs (2004) 3/5
- 22. Desalination plants bring life to Northern Sahara (2004) 3/5
- 23. UMTS video cellphones invade privacy - calls for compulsory registration (2004) 5/5
- 24. Teenager’s computer smarts save three in attic fire (2005) 4/5
- 25. U.S. Institute of Genomic Research releases DNA map - NADA leads wave of protest (2005) 5/5
- 26. Finnish Net shoppers dissatisfied with current consumer goods distribution (2005) 5/5
- 27. White House and Pentagon to get protective infrasound “overcoat” (2005) 4/5
- 28. Seclock I-A-S VoiceKey brings new confidence to homes, offices (2005) 4/5
- 29. Uproar in new suburbs after datanet vandals reprogram home control systems (2005) 4/5
- 30. Benecol PLC reports data breach - fears shares may suffer (2006) 5/5
- 31. Movenergy underwear converts body movements to electricity (2006) 3/5
- 32. Finnish Labour Unions, IRS worried over growth in cash payments to smart cards (2006) 4/5
- 33. Environmentalists demand global ban on leisure drone-kites - nesting birds endangered (2006) (4/5)
- 34. Nanorobots perfect surround & destroy technique on cancer cells - Medical Review hails new breakthrough (2006) 4/5
- 35. Customs seize more illegal personal identifiers in Heathrow swoop (2007) 5/5
- 36. Aids vaccine wins WHO approval - Ethics Committee fears precedent (2007) (1/5)
- 37. Increasing demand for new recognition and tracing devices (2007) 5/5
- 38. Win2003-compatible FixEye software offers natural eye contact in videotelephony (2007) (4/5)
- 39. IBM builds world’s largest virtual market, sweeps ITF Awards (2007) 5/5
- 40. Rumours of Nokia’s new VT Communicator - full-sized PC from pocket micro (2007) 5/5
- 41. Jack-of-all-Faces - virtual physiognomics for the discriminating vidiphone user (2008) 4/5
- 42. Surgical sewing machine - long-awaited OT advance sets doctors smiling (2008) 4/5
- 43. Nokia profits and broadband videomobiles send shares soaring (2008) 5/5
- 44. UN threatens embargo on DSC outlaw nations (2008) 4/5
- 45. NetFin, a worldbeater at only EUR 998,00 - the first autodidactic Digital Dolphin: so much more than a pet! (2008) 4/5
- 46. EU Consumer Council recommends ultrasound washing instructions (2009) 2/5
- 47. Virtual Beauty 2009 - virtual jewellery goes on display in Osaka (2009) 4/5
- 48. Video tattoos eat into virtual jewellery market - police investigate links with Cyberpunk radicals (2009) 3/5
- 49. China and India on full military alert as guerilla group infiltrates Indian media stations with forged “Chinese Cabinet Session” advocating Chinese takeover - UN demands inquiry (2009) 4/5
- 50. Test Drive: On-line Volvo 2010 is a ***** winner! (2010) 5/5
- 51. Singapore orders compulsory emotional rehabilitation for long-term prisoners (2010) 3/5
- 52. CDCuisinette - bringing the computer to the kitchen: the recipe for automated gourmet cooking! (2010) 4/5
- 53. Finally! Nokia’s “monster” memoryphone meets Data Commission criteria - shares up 12% (2010) 5/5
- 54. Anti-doping medicine in crisis - nanomolecules improve performance and oxygen intake (2010) 4/5
- 55. Artificial personalities clear gridlock in videotelephony services - employees lobby for limitations and conditions (2011) 5/5
- 56. Don’t waste your energy - Enbody heat exchange and storage outfits (2011) 3/5
- 57. Enbody suit malfunction leads to tragic hypothermia death in Swiss Alps (2011) (2/5)
- 58. ManMaker potency automat reduces need for alcohol, mood drugs (2011) 4/5
- 59. EU bugging virus scandal forces limits on telephony - confidential calls to be routed through separate secure network (2011) 5/5
- 60. TRANSCAP Translation Helmet/ Patent Application No. FIN-2019-01-14-M-4497 (2011) 5/5
- 61. Finnish and Swedish maritime authorities satisfied with early results of ice-melting pumps (2011) 3/5
- 62. Dolly-Friesian donates 1000th litre of blood (2012) 3/5
- 63. SatWeb virtual world complete and opened (2012) 5/5
- 64. Is that a phone, or a mouth-organ? (2012) 3/5
- 65. MedecSniff detector to be made obligatory on all packed fresh meats and perishables (2012) 4/5
- 66. Report from the Housing Fair at Vihti Cyber Village (2012) 4/5
- 67. Digimirrors hasten structural changes in garment trade (2012) 5/5
- 68. Cultivation and care of Wrapit packaging plants (Brassica oleracea canadiensis) (2013) 4/5
- 69. World Allergy Organization demands Dustaway ionisator/vacuum system in all public buildings (2013) 3/5
- 70. Many countries oppose UN-enforced male contraceptor - riots in Central Africa (2013) (1/5)
- 71. Finland closes schools (2013) 3/5
- 72. Beyond Passion* **experience-expanding hypnostimuli trigger epileptic seizures (2013) 4/5
- 73. Ultrasound umbrella is year’s Xmas hit, but that trendy steam-cloud doesn’t come cheap! (2013) (1/5)
- 74. Demand for LEPs exceeds supply - electronurseries warn of price hikes (2014) 3/5
- 75. Rogue fungicide threatens European vineyards (2014) (2/5)
- 76. Hungary declares national emergency over runaway mildew bacteria (2014) (1/5)
- 77. At last! Holograms go to the movies! (2014) 4/5
- 78. Daytime soap classic** The Bold and the Beautiful **recorded on hologram cubes (2014) 4/5
- 79. Pelmano tablets improve short-term memory, but IQ levels unchanged (2014) 3/5
- 80. Super artificial skin senses weak electrical fields - new breakthrough in gene manipulation (2014) 3/5
- 81. Speech by Dame Stacia Hawkwind, MEP, at preparatory committee prior to 1st reading of the Bill on the Prohibition of Advertising Toys and Dolls (2015) 4/5
- 82. Polish millionaire gets gene-manipulated pig’s heart - in stable condition after 3-hour operation (2015) (4/5)
- 83. Watersaver bodysuit uses electrolytes and chemicals to purify sweat & urine for drinking water (2015) (2/5)
- 84. Hologram newspapers drive paper manufacturers to the brink - UPM and Canadian Paper close newsprint mills (2015) 5/5
- 85. Speech at Multimedia Advertising XV World Congress, Venice (2015) 5/5
- 86. First Desert Sunsailor World Championship goes to Chinese veteran (2016) 3/5
- 87. DigiValet - a revolutionary multivision add-on that learns all your desires. Pack your bags, Jeeves! DigiValet is here! (2016) 5/5
- 88. Telecommuting and virtual entertainment reducing Westerners’ physical condition to alarming levels (2016) 5/5
- 89. Virtual tennis keeps you fit and virile (2016) 5/5
- 90. Nobel Prize goes to Japanese-Indian para-antibiotics pairing (2016) 3/5
- 91. Feral cybermoles cause of flooding in Athens metro tunnels (2017) (2/5)
- 92. PRIVAMED personal home doctor services (2017) 5/5
- 93. *First batch of aquanaut children celebrate second birthday (2017) (0/5)
- 94. Death of all aquanaut children reported - UN calls for global minute’s silence tomorrow (2017) 2/5
- 95. **40 stolen birch-laminate gene chairs found in Glasgow market - thousands of patented Pentik chairs still unaccounted for (2017) 3/5
- 96. Energypower Ltd Annual Report: R&D Dept. Electric Plant & Forestry Project (2017) 3/5
- 97. *Landfill biorobots go on rampage and eat São Paolo slum area - Brazilian army halts advance (2017) 3/5
- 98. The discreet charm of the invisible instrument (2018) 4/5
- 99. Forests set to become world’s gene bank as genic pine proves capable of storing and reproducing plant and animal hereditary factors (2018) (2/5)
- 100. Cable-operated crewless ferry goes into service on Helsinki - Tallinn run (2018) 4/5
- 101. A whale of a catch or an end to fishing? Experiments with sensory baits prompt angry response from Protect Our Oceans (2018) 4/5
- 102. Natural Development Association (NADA) tries to destroy age prevention therapy files in Quebec (2018) 3/5
- 103. EU Medical Commission warns cyberhotels dangerous for heart patients (2018) 3/5
- 104. Children of Aqua underwater research project (2019) (2/5)
- 105. World’s first totally synthetic nerve implanted in 3-year-old patient (2019) 4/5
- 106. Forget Jules Verne - Around the World in a MINUTE with DHL’s android personal courier service (2019) 4/5
- 107. *Big Brother is watching your genes, be on your guard! (2019) 5/5
- 108. Ingrid in the raw in Miss Universe pre-competition telecast* (2019) 3/5
- 109. COMMENT:Medical and military breakthrough becomes contentious fashion statement (2019) 4/5
- 110. Artificial eyes give you a better view on things (2020) 3/5
- 111. Oxymaker - will revolutionary carbon dioxide eating plants save the planet? (2020) 3/5
- 112. UN defines humans - arguments simmer in General Assembly over limits on humanid rights (2020) (2/5)
- 113. Intelligent network virus Netmind gives exclusive personal interview - close encounters with artificial intelligence (2020) 4/5
- 114. “Numbers of the living dead exceed natural mortality figures” - EU population register (2020) (2/5)